I’d wager that you could go on almost any news website today and find at least one article about the next recession. And most financial news sites have multiple articles exploring different angles on the recession. What is a recession? Will there be a recession? Which economic indicators indicate a coming recession or not? How long and severe will it be? How to prepare for a recession. How to invest in a recession. How will it affect Wall Street? How will it affect Main Street? I could go on.
So, with some trepidation, I’m adding to the blare of recession babble in today’s post. That’s because I still have a couple of questions that haven’t received much attention, as far as I’ve seen. Those questions are:
- What effect do recessions typically have on long-term investors?
- Why are so many expecting a recession, when considerable economic data still belie that expectation?
After some research, here are my answers.
Question 1: Recessions and Long-Term Investors
When it comes to the question of potential damage to your investment portfolio, most articles I’ve recently read focus on worst-case losses for stocks and bonds from past recessions. For stocks, here’s a good example, which I adapted from some RBC Capital Markets research as summarized by Sam Ro at TKer.
Like all stock data presented in today’s post, the surrogate for U.S. stocks in this graph is the S&P 500. The dates at the bottom of the graph are when each recession ended. The average peak-to-trough stock loss across these recessions was -32%. Ouch! So, long-term stock investors should expect some pain with the next recession.
But let’s take a closer look at these scary data. They represent the decline in stocks from the peak proceeding (or during) the recession to the subsequent trough around the same recession. This measures the loss for an investor who bought in right at the absolute top of the peak and sold right at the absolute bottom of the trough. While such people undoubtedly exist during each recession, the chances that any one investor would be so unlucky are extremely small. And any deviation from this poorest-possible market timing necessarily results in a less severe outcome for the investor.
Since 1928, recessions have ranged in duration from two months (COVID recession of 2020) to five years (the Great Depression). Because mindful investors are long-term investors, your investing timeframe is hopefully much longer than a few months. So, what if we instead examine the impacts on returns for whole years throughout the recession for each such event since 1928? Limiting the analysis to whole-year return data gives us a more realistic sense of what an investor with a 1- to 5-year timeframe might experience in the next recession.