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Author: Karl Steiner

Yet Another Article About The Next Recession

I’d wager that you could go on almost any news website today and find at least one article about the next recession.  And most financial news sites have multiple articles exploring different angles on the recession.  What is a recession?  Will there be a recession?   Which economic indicators indicate a coming recession or not?  How long and severe will it be?  How to prepare for a recession.  How to invest in a recession.  How will it affect Wall Street?  How will it affect Main Street?  I could go on.

So, with some trepidation, I’m adding to the blare of recession babble in today’s post.  That’s because I still have a couple of questions that haven’t received much attention, as far as I’ve seen.  Those questions are:

  1. What effect do recessions typically have on long-term investors?
  2. Why are so many expecting a recession, when considerable economic data still belie that expectation?

After some research, here are my answers.

Question 1: Recessions and Long-Term Investors

When it comes to the question of potential damage to your investment portfolio, most articles I’ve recently read focus on worst-case losses for stocks and bonds from past recessions.  For stocks, here’s a good example, which I adapted from some RBC Capital Markets research as summarized by Sam Ro at TKer.

Like all stock data presented in today’s post, the surrogate for U.S. stocks in this graph is the S&P 500.  The dates at the bottom of the graph are when each recession ended.  The average peak-to-trough stock loss across these recessions was -32%.  Ouch!  So, long-term stock investors should expect some pain with the next recession.

But let’s take a closer look at these scary data.  They represent the decline in stocks from the peak proceeding (or during) the recession to the subsequent trough around the same recession.  This measures the loss for an investor who bought in right at the absolute top of the peak and sold right at the absolute bottom of the trough.  While such people undoubtedly exist during each recession, the chances that any one investor would be so unlucky are extremely small.  And any deviation from this poorest-possible market timing necessarily results in a less severe outcome for the investor.

Since 1928, recessions have ranged in duration from two months (COVID recession of 2020) to five years (the Great Depression).  Because mindful investors are long-term investors, your investing timeframe is hopefully much longer than a few months.  So, what if we instead examine the impacts on returns for whole years throughout the recession for each such event since 1928?  Limiting the analysis to whole-year return data gives us a more realistic sense of what an investor with a 1- to 5-year timeframe might experience in the next recession.

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Did Anything Happen While I Was Gone?

I haven’t been posting regularly for a couple of months, for reasons that I laid out in my last post from early May.  And for the most part, I’ve been too buried in other activities to monitor the financial markets.  Now that my head is back above ground, I was curious to look around and see what I missed.  If the once green market landscape was looking pretty drought-stricken in April, then now it looks like a veritable desert.  It turns out that the last two months have been pretty eventful.  So, I thought restarting with an investing recap of happenings since April might be helpful to you and me both.

Stocks

When I last posted in early May, the price of the S&P 500 was down about 13% since the beginning of the year.  Over the last two months, it’s dropped another 7% plus to make an official bear market with a 20.4% decrease for the year.  (Bear markets are usually measured from the last peak, but in this case, that peak was right around the start of the year.)  So, stock investors have endured two bear markets within the last two years, the other being the brief plunge in March 2020.

Here’s a graph of total nominal returns for various asset classes through June of this year from Portfolio Visualizer data including many varieties of stocks.

Besides the fact that almost every asset is down for the year, it’s interesting that international stocks haven’t offered much diversification to U.S stocks.  Developed market stocks (excluding the U.S.) have mirrored U.S. stocks so far this year.  Emerging market stocks have performed slightly better in the last two months and are down 14.9% for the year, but that’s not much to cheer about.  The other notable disaster was all sizes of U.S. growth stocks, which returned a chilling negative 30% or more.  Meanwhile, value stocks have performed relatively well, with U.S. Large-cap Value dropping just 9.4%.

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Mindfully Investing Hiatus

Ever since I started Mindfully Investing, I’ve managed to post roughly twice a month without a break.  My perfect attendance record included months when I suffered and then recovered from a heart attack, some long vacations, and several other time-consuming life events.  Through all of this, I somehow found the time and energy to research, develop graphics for, write, edit and publish a post that, on average, was somewhere in the 2000-word range.

But I now find that I need to take a break from the relentless posting cycle.  Given my last post, you might reasonably think that the hiatus is because I’m going through a divorce, and I don’t have the emotional bandwidth for blogging.  But that’s not exactly right.  In fact, I’ve been separated for nearly a year.  And even in the early days of the separation, when my emotions were running their hottest, I managed to put together some decent posts.  But now I’m officially divorced, and emotionally speaking, things have calmed down considerably.

A more accurate description of my current situation is summed up by an inside joke from my relentlessly busy old job: “I’m paralyzed with workload.”  The joke refers to that uncomfortable condition where you find yourself with too many high-priority deadlines.  If you work on A, then B and C will be late.  If you work on B, then A and C will be of poor quality, etc.  Paralysis sets in as you try to come up with some magic way to tackle all the tasks, while in the meantime, the deadlines creep ever closer.  The joke is funny to observers but not to those suffering the paralysis—like a friend slipping on a banana peel.

My divorce process is mostly over, but now I find myself tending an endless to-do list with categories like cleaning out the house I’ve lived in for 15 years, getting it ready to sell, selling the darn thing, buying a new house, moving to the new house, family commitments this spring and summer, and the usual everyday stuff that never stops.

If you work full time, such complaints from a fully retired person may seem ridiculous to you.  And to some extent, your right.  I somehow previously managed to move eight times while holding down a full-time job.  If I really wanted to, I could work on posts late into the night after I’m physically worn out from yard work and packing up rooms.  But that option would feel a lot like my old professional life and reminds me of the main reason that I decided to retire early.  I hated being paralyzed by workload.

So, I always told myself that if blogging ever felt like work instead of an enjoyable hobby, I’d have to stop or at least take a break.  That’s exactly where I am right now.  Now as I work on my endless to-do list, I find that the thought of my next blog post is becoming just another chore on the list.  Instead of looking forward to the mental change of scenery offered by writing, I’m instead worrying about where to find the time for blogging.  Ideas for new posts that normally just pop into my head have dried up, or when they do arise, they seem too trivial for a quality post.

So, when will I start posting regularly again?  I wish I could say for sure, but putting a deadline on it feels too much like the deadlines from my previous work life.  Instead, I’ll just say that, when things calm down and the idea of blogging feels appealing again, I will get back to writing.  I don’t think it’s a matter of if, but when.

Apologies to anyone who recently subscribed to my post notifications.  It must feel like the rug was pulled out from under you.  On the other hand, if you are new to Mindfully Investing, there are more than a hundred past posts and articles that have extremely relevant content for anyone who’s trying to navigate the world of individual investing.  Just because one of my posts was published in the past doesn’t make it outdated information, although you’ll find occasional exceptions.  So, I urge new readers to keep clicking that “older posts” link to find some still topical content.

Until next time.

How Divorce Changes Everything and Nothing About A Mindful Investing Plan

Over the years I’ve kept the focus of Mindfully Investing on the principles of successful investing, and as a result, I’ve written very little about my personal life.  Although there seems to be a big audience for blogs about personal financial journeys, I don’t think my plain vanilla life and finances make for particularly compelling reading.

However, I’ve made a few exceptions over the years.  I wrote an up close and personal post about my heart attack almost exactly five years ago.  I’ve also written a post or two that included some aspects of my personal investing and retirement plan and some actions I considered during the March 2020 market crash.  But those were mainly presented as real-life examples of investing concepts that could apply to anyone.

However, now I find myself at another of life’s major crossroads.  I’m in the process of getting divorced.  And that means splitting up assets, which means that I need to convert our retirement and investing plan into my retirement and investing plan.

In the U.S., almost 50% of all marriages end in divorce, and the divorce rate for couples over 50 (like me) has doubled since 1990.  So, my newfound knowledge of divorce finances is potentially relevant to a large swath of investors and retirees out there.  Today’s post contains a grab bag of my observations about divorce finances in the hopes that at least some of them will be useful to others who may be facing divorce now or in the future.

Divorce Changes Everything

At first glance, divorce would seem to change almost everything about an investing and retirement plan.  (You can read more about investing plans in Article 10 of Mindfully Investing and you can read more about retirement plan considerations in Articles 8.2, 8.3, and 8.4.)

To illustrate, here’s a list of some items contained in a basic investing plan and examples of how divorce may change them:

  • Investing Goals – If your goal was to accumulate $X million for retirement, any progress you were making toward that has been set back.  Also, the goal itself may need to change when you consider the cost of living alone rather than as a couple.
  • Existing Investments – Divorce can cause the tally of investments to change drastically.  Most commonly, the total value of investments is cut in half.
  • Asset Allocations – The splitting process may drastically alter your asset allocations and may require you to consider rebalancing assets to be consistent with your revised goals.
  • Savings/Contribution Rate – Most likely you will have a lower total income and a different monthly budget after divorce, which will alter the trajectory toward your ultimate investing goal.
  • Tax Minimization – A decent investing plan should try to minimize taxes over a lifetime, with particular attention to the handling of tax-advantaged versus taxable accounts.  A divorce will likely alter your account holdings and tax situation, which may require some restructuring to avoid unnecessary taxes.
  • Market Events – Although mindful investing generally advocates for ignoring market movements, a prudent plan may include preplanned actions when certain market conditions occur.¹  And those planned actions could need to change after divorce.

Many of the above changes also apply to a retirement plan.  Additional changes that are relevant to a retirement plan include:

  • Glide Path – A “glide path” describes how asset allocations should change as you approach, enter, and age through retirement to minimize sequence of return risks.²  Splitting of assets may knock you way off your projected glide path, and you’ll need a new path that is compatible with your new situation and long-term goals.
  • Withdrawals –  A retirement plan should include a dynamic³ withdrawal rate to fund living expenses that minimizes the chances of running out of money too soon.  Divorce changes both living expenses and the size of the nest egg that funds the withdrawals.  In essence, safe withdrawal rates must be completely recalculated based on post-divorce asset allocations and values as well as your new budget.

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Can You Count On TIPS When Inflation Surges?

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are one of the few assets that offer a reliable hedge against inflation.  TIPS are a form of U.S. Treasury Bonds that are indexed to inflation.  So, when inflation rises, the government raises TIPS prices by a proportionate amount to compensate.

Years of finance research have shown that almost all other assets (like stocks, bonds, cash, real estate, and gold) are remarkably inconsistent and weak hedges against rising inflation.  One study by Bekaert and Wang in 2010 went so far as to say:

  • “In short, it is next to impossible to use an individual asset or a portfolio of assets to adequately hedge inflation risk.”

Despite this conclusion, Bekaert and Wang were able to rank the limited inflation-hedging capacity of assets from worst to best as follows:

  • Stocks
  • Conventional Treasury Bonds
  • Treasury Bills
  • Foreign government bonds
  • Real estate
  • Gold.

This is why the built-in inflation protection of TIPS is extremely attractive for investors who are worried about potential future surges in inflation.

However, TIPS have only been around since 1997.  And in that time, Portfolio Visualizer data indicate that annual inflation has averaged a historically mild 2.3% with a peak of just 3.4% in 2005, excluding last year’s unexpected jump to 7.0%.  In contrast, during the prior 25 years, annual inflation averaged 5.6% with a peak of 13.3% in 1979.  It seems that the government invented TIPS just in time for obsolescence.  So, last year represents the first opportunity in history to see how TIPS perform when inflation rises substantially.

Further, last year’s inflation spike was initially dismissed as “transitory” and the persistence of high inflation into 2022 was a surprise to both investors and the conventional Treasury bond markets, which reflect investor expectations about future inflation.  Consequently, last year was particularly auspicious for the automatic inflation protection offered by TIPS exactly because no one was expecting a large and persistent rise in inflation.

So, in today’s post, I want to examine how TIPS, the only clear inflation hedge available, performed in 2021 as compared to other common asset classes.

Last Year’s Story

This graph shows the nominal (not inflation-adjusted) total 2021 returns of 14 asset classes from Portfolio Visualizer as compared to the 7% rate of inflation shown by the black horizontal line.  Types of stocks are shown in blue, types of bonds are shown in orange, and alternative assets of real estate (proxied by REIT stocks) and gold are shown in green.

Focusing on bonds for a moment, TIPS¹ were indeed the outstanding bond performer for 2021, with a nominal return of 5.6%.  All other types of bonds lost nominal money last year.  However, TIPS surprisingly lost inflation-adjusted money because their nominal returns were about 1.4% below the annual rate of inflation.  In my view, it’s pretty disappointing to lose inflation-adjusted money from an asset that includes an explicit inflation adjustment.

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